The 25 year high-speed growth period of China's me

The 25 year high-speed growth period of China's mechanical and electrical exports ended. The Economic Observer reported on August 1 that "the period of 30% high-speed growth of China's mechanical and electrical products in the past 25 years will be gone forever." On the morning of July 30, Zhang Ji, director of the Department of electromechanical and science and technology industries of the Ministry of Commerce, said

mechanical and electrical products have been continuously maintained and repaired: for 15 years, they have maintained the position of China's largest export commodity, contributing nearly 60% to China's exports. Mechanical and electrical exports are crucial to the recovery of China's exports

however, Zhang Ji is not too pessimistic. He said, "although it will not be 30%, I personally believe that the growth rate of China's electromechanical exports will still be higher than GDP, higher than the average level of world trade, and higher than the average level of China's foreign trade exports."

from 1985 to 2008, the average annual growth rate of mechanical and electrical products in China was as high as 30.9%. However, under the combined effect of internal and external factors, mechanical and electrical exports began to show negative growth at the end of 2008

in the first half of this year, the export of mechanical and electrical products fell by 21.1%. In terms of major categories of commodities, the decline of major export commodities exceeded double digits

from the perspective of endogenous forces, since 2002, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products have maintained an increase of US $100million year by year, and China's exports of mechanical and electrical products are now second only to Germany. If calculated by this increment, in five years, China's electromechanical exports will reach 2.6 times that of Germany, 3.2 times that of the United States and 4.4 times that of Japan

"this is basically impossible." Zhang Ji said, "moreover, in the area of extensive growth in China, the growth has basically increased, and the next increment depends on structural adjustment."

from the perspective of exogenous forces, the orders transferred from the international market are not enough to support such a high-speed growth, and there will be many problems. Including environmental issues, land issues, but also trade friction issues, foreign exchange surplus issues

"in the past five years, the demand brought about by the financial expansion in Europe and the United States will fall back to the normal level. The fall in demand will be passed on to the third world and emerging economies, and the prices of oil and mineral resources will fall back to the normal level. At the same time, the orders transferred in the world will fall. Because these developed countries are also increasingly aware of the importance of developing their own real economy and manufacturing industry." Zhang Ji said

however, Zhang Ji is not too pessimistic. He believes that China's comparative advantage in mechanical and electrical exports is still obvious and can still maintain a relatively high speed

first, from a worldwide perspective, the demand for mechanical and electrical products is still high. At present, mechanical and electrical products account for 30% of the world trade in goods. In addition, China's comparative advantage still exists. Ministry of Commerce survey shows that some orders transferred to Vietnam and other countries are returning. Finally, although the total amount and amount have declined, the international market share of China's exports of mechanical and electrical products is still expanding

Zhang Ji's confidence also comes from the Chinese government's support policy for the export of mechanical and electrical products. At present, 70% of the export tax rebate of mechanical and electrical products has been fully levied and refunded, and the effect of "421" special escort is gradually emerging

"421" special project, namely "special fund arrangement for export financing insurance of large complete sets of equipment". The enterprises shortlisted in this special project can enjoy several concessions, such as accelerating the loan approval process in the form of packaging, and the China export and credit insurance corporation providing premium installment payment services to them

Zhang Ji said, "this is actually through the intervention of insurance, allowing various banks to participate."

international enterprises still need to buy equipment, but they are short of funds. Chinese mechanical and electrical export enterprises can extend the repayment period of foreign buyers. The resulting domestic software can also be used to acquiesce in general steps; If the export enterprises are short of working capital, they can get bank loans through the "421" special project

"this should be regarded as a deformation of seller's credit." Said Mei Xinyu, an associate researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, a multi gate system (blog)

according to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, the number of projects submitted to the Ministry of Commerce for inclusion in the "421" special application has reached 391, of which the signed contract amount is 102.8 billion US dollars, involving 71 enterprises that regularly replace hydraulic oil

it is reported that the original target of the "421" special project was to provide financial support and interest rate concessions for the total export amount of US $42.1 billion that had signed contracts with foreign businessmen, which had been summarized to the chamber of Commerce for machinery and electronics by the end of March

however, after the executive meeting of the State Council proposed six policies and measures to stabilize foreign demand on May 27, the "421 special project" significantly accelerated and quickly exceeded the initial amount of support for the $42.1 billion contract amount

according to the current statistics, the effect of this policy is very obvious. In addition to the $102.8 billion contracts signed above, there are still $100billion contracts under negotiation

relevant officials of the Ministry of Commerce said, "the 421 special project is a long-term policy, and the contract amount is likely to continue to expand."